I am not clairvoyant and have no crystal ball. But I’ve got some predictions for 2026. 

I learned about predictions from a master of the craft: Byron Wien, a market strategist who rose to Wall Street prominence in the 1990s for his annual “Ten Surprises” list. Back in the day, I spent several weeks shadowing Wien as a reporter, and the lessons have long stuck with me.

Wien said that the prediction game wasn’t about being right. It was about identifying trends. He knew many of his “surprises” would never come to pass, at least not in the extreme form that he shared. But they sparked dialogue and got people to confront their assumptions. And every now and then, he’d hit something spot-on. 

In the spirit of Wien’s lists, I’m sharing my own predicted “surprises” for the year ahead. Consider them provocations for discussion. And we’ll see how it all plays out. 

I’m reminded of an insight Wien shared privately with me, as he ticked through the holdings in his personal investment portfolio. He said that he owned Investment A for Reason A, and Investment B for Reason B. And then he said that he owned Investment C “as a hedge against everything else I believe.” He knew that he’d be wrong about some things, and was prepared to be wrong about everything. I’ve yet to find a better approach for navigating a chaotic world. 

Now, on to the predictions! 

No one—and I mean no one—has a consistent record of correctly calling the stock market. But just this once, I have a feeling.

Yes, AI profits at Nvidia are astounding. Yes, the dominance of hyperscalers like Google and Amazon and Microsoft continues to grow. But the money being plowed into AI capabilities right now is not yet yielding significant incremental value for AI end users: the customers of hyperscalers.

So while a narrow group of very rich companies are pouring billions into AI development (and driving those huge numbers at Nvidia), it is not yet a tide that........

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