The Japanese government has announced plans to beef up its defences in western island prefectures by setting up radar, ammunition depots and equipping them with Type-12 anti-ship missiles in a move to strengthen the ability to defend Japanese territory and marine areas, to prevent any coercion, and to ensure the safety of international sea lanes. While the increased military capability is intended to be capable of effectively deterring any attempted coercion of Japan, the decision may also be seen as an escalation. Therefore, it is important to balance between deterrence and escalation.

This incident is closely related to the concept of the security dilemma. The Japanese government explained the deployment of early warning sensors and the arrival of a logistics unit by referring to the defence of Japan. China is likely to view the placement of surveillance sensors in Okinawa and around the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands as a Japanese attempt to enhance its ability to monitor Chinese developments. China will probably increase its own surveillance activities in the area in order to counter the Japanese advantage. As a result, Chinese warships and submarines may be patrolling the area more intensively, thereby increasing the risk of accidental collisions.

Japan’s domestic politics will remain a major influence on Japan’s security policy. Japan’s people have a long history of peace-loving sentiments and an innate predisposition to avoid anything that is perceived as being military or militaristic. This historical legacy, in conjunction with contemporary cultural sensitivities, means that any revival of the military in a manner reminiscent of the Imperial Japanese Army before 1945 is likely to be met with considerable hostility. Moreover, Japan’s high levels of debt and its rapidly ageing population will also........

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