In early September the Houthis seized the port of Mocha and advanced roughly 150 km toward Bab al-Mandeb, creating a second maritime pressure point alongside the Strait of Hormuz and driving Brent crude from an average of about $89 to above $110 per barrel despite limited immediate production losses.

On 4–5 October the internationally recognized Yemeni government, with substantial Saudi air and naval support, launched “Operation Dawn of Yemen,” deploying 100 fighter aircraft and striking 324 high-value targets in an effort to reverse the coastal gains and restore Red Sea security.

Saudi Arabia’s immediate priority, driven by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, is to deny the Iran-backed Houthis a durable hold on Bab al-Mandeb and protect maritime and energy interests, while the Presidential Leadership Council frames the campaign more broadly as a step toward national reunification.

Early in September the Houthis launched a rapid and unexpected offensive along Yemen’s Red Sea coast. They captured the strategically important port of Mocha and pushed south towards the Bab al-Mandeb strait, gaining roughly 150km of coastline and threatening the southern entrance to the Red Sea.

The offensive turned Bab al-Mandeb into a second maritime pressure point in Iran’s conflict with the United States. Before it, American naval and military resources could concentrate on the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s principal economic lever. The Houthi advance put the Red Sea route into play as well, giving Iran potential leverage over both of the region’s main oil-shipping corridors.

Oil prices are determined at the margin, so even when actual lost production is relatively small, the mere threat of disruption can produce a large price increase. That is exactly what happened in September.  Brentcrude, the principal international benchmark price for crude oil, had averaged about $89 per barrel for most of 2026.  After the seizure of Mocha, despite there not yet being an equivalent actual loss of global oil production, it went above $110.  It now sits just below........

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