Israeli airstrikes on Syria’s Abu al-Duhur airbase (linked to Turkish activity) and Türkiye’s pursuit of an Interpol Red Notice against Netanyahu have intensified a deeper strategic rivalry over influence in post-Assad Syria.

Israel views expanded Turkish military presence near its northern approaches as a security threat, while Türkiye sees Israeli operations as violations of Syrian sovereignty; both sides mix kinetic actions with domestic political messaging.

The rivalry strains NATO cohesion and complicates U.S. dual partnerships, raising risks of miscalculation even if neither side currently seeks a full-scale war.

In recent days, Israeli warplanes struck the Abu al-Duhur airbase in northern Syria, a facility Turkish forces have utilised and where Ankara was reportedly considering a larger presence. The attack, which damaged runways and hangars without reported casualties, has sharpened an already poisonous rhetoric between Jerusalem and Ankara. 

Israeli politicians have spent months escalating verbal attacks on Türkiye ahead of Israel’s October elections. Türkiye has countered by seeking an Interpol Red Notice against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on charges that include genocide, crimes against humanity and torture linked to the interception of a Gaza-bound flotilla. 

What looks at first glance like election-season theatre masks deeper structural rivalry. Syria remains the prize. Israel has steadily expanded its military footprint and security demands inside Syrian territory since the fall of the Assad regime. 

Turkish forces, present for years to manage Kurdish threats and stabilise northern zones, now cooperate more openly with the new Syrian authorities. Israel views any Turkish consolidation near Aleppo as a potential forward threat. Where Türkiye sees Israeli strikes as expansionist interference in a neighbour’s sovereignty. 

The result is a classic contest for strategic depth in........

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