Few developments since the Taliban’s return to power have been as surprising as India’s gradual re-emergence in Afghanistan. In 2021, most observers assumed Islamabad would be the principal beneficiary of the new political order in Kabul. Geography, historical ties, and decades of engagement with Afghan actors appeared to guarantee Pakistan enduring influence. Four years later, that assumption is increasingly difficult to sustain.

Instead of moving closer together, Pakistan and the Taliban government have experienced growing friction over security concerns, border management, and regional diplomacy. As relations between Kabul and Islamabad have become increasingly strained, India has quietly expanded its engagement with Afghanistan, creating a new dynamic that is reshaping regional calculations.

The result is not a dramatic geopolitical realignment, but a gradual shift in which India has regained relevance in a country where its future role once appeared uncertain.

From Strategic Expectations to Strategic Friction

One of the defining features of the post-2021 regional landscape has been the deterioration of Pakistan-Taliban relations. Many policymakers expected the Taliban’s return to power to strengthen cooperation between the two sides. Instead, disagreements surrounding the activities of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), cross-border security incidents, and border management have become persistent sources of tension.

Pakistan has repeatedly argued that TTP militants continue to operate from Afghan territory and pose a direct threat to its security. Taliban officials have rejected accusations that Afghanistan is responsible for Pakistan’s internal security challenges. The disagreement has periodically escalated into diplomatic confrontations and military action.

Relations reached a particularly difficult phase in October 2025, when tensions intensified following a series of security incidents and renewed accusations regarding militant sanctuaries. Relations reached a particularly difficult phase by February 2026 when Pakistan launched coordinated strikes against targets it identified as TTP and ISIS-K sanctuaries inside Afghanistan. Kabul condemned the operation as a violation of its........

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