India and Bangladesh are experiencing one of their toughest times in recent years. Formerly a model of regional cooperation on the basis of common history, cultural proximity and economic interdependence, the bilateral relationship is currently marred by mistrust, political differences and rival conceptions of sovereignty. The political change in Dhaka is not just a challenge to the domestic power balance but has also shown the structural weaknesses of India’s regional policy and the reverse side of New Delhi’s belief that influence in South Asia is bound to be assured by the weight of geography and economic power. 

Under Sheikh Hasina, India had been in a very conducive strategic position in Bangladesh for a considerable amount of the past decade. The cooperation in security reached a higher level, the anti-India insurgent networks were reduced, the projects of connectivity were speeded up and trade relations were strengthened considerably. Bangladesh proved to be an important pillar of New Delhi’s ‘Neighbourhood First’ policy and an example of how Indian leadership of regional cooperation can yield mutual benefits. However, this was based on alignment between states and not wider societal acceptance. A new political system has been established in Dhaka and it has shown how far Indian influence has penetrated the leadership alone and not deeply enough into the political consciousness of Bangladesh. 

The current tensions are, therefore, not just about a policy clash, but also a rejection, as noted, by parts of Bangladeshi society of Indian overreach. To many young people in Bangladesh, sovereignty has been synonymous with the demand for political autonomy and independence from outside powers.........

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