Barrick Mining’s March 2026 announcement that it is slowing development of the Reko Diq copper-gold project in Balochistan represents the most consequential setback to Pakistan’s mining ambitions since the $5.84 billion arbitration penalty that nearly killed the project a decade ago. The Toronto-based miner launched an internal review in February following a surge in separatist violence across the province. First production, previously targeted for late 2028, will now slip to 2029 at the earliest.

The financial exposure is substantial. Barrick invested $721 million in the project during 2025. Komatsu’s $440 million equipment deal, Fluor Corporation’s engineering contract, and a $3.5 billion financing package assembled by the U.S. Export-Import Bank ($1.25 billion), the Asian Development Bank, and other multilateral lenders are all subject to reassessment. The project sits atop one of the world’s largest undeveloped copper-gold deposits, containing an estimated 15 million tonnes of proven and probable copper reserves and 26 million ounces of gold.

The conventional framing treats Barrick’s pause as a crisis. A more productive reading is that the slowdown exposes a structural gap in Pakistan’s mining governance architecture: the absence of formalised, internationally benchmarked security frameworks for extractive operations in conflict-affected provinces.

The Security Environment

The security environment driving Barrick’s decision has deteriorated measurably. According to the Pakistan Institute for Peace Studies, Balochistan recorded at least 254 terrorist attacks in 2025, a 26 per cent increase over the previous year. The Jaffar Express train hijacking in March 2025, in which Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) fighters seized more than 400 passengers, was described by Chatham House as a watershed moment. The January 2026 coordinated assaults across at least nine........

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