By Jason D. Greenblatt

Greenblatt says Iran treats Hormuz as its main wartime lever (danger and insurance, not a total shutdown). Tehran claimed hits on two U.S. ships and eight tankers; Washington denies warship damage. After U.S. strikes on Iranian tankers, Brent topped $100; summer prices had often sat $70–$95 with far fewer ships and high war-risk premiums.

He argues Trump is raising Iran’s cost: tanker hits, sanctions on airlines and a Turkish bank tied to oil-for-gold, plus more banks promised. Leverage works only if Iran inflicts more pain than it takes.

Tehran, he writes, is fighting not bargaining (Jordan missiles, Houthi hits, exclusion talk) and watching the Nov. 3 midterms. He says that clock is wrong: Trump remains president until 2029 and can press Iran and Congress at once.

Tehran believes the Strait of Hormuz is its strongest weapon in this war. The US is making it increasingly expensive to use.

Iran says it struck two American vessels and eight oil tankers in the Gulf this week. The US says the claim that Iran hit American warships is false, and separate reports of merchant ships being struck do not confirm Iran’s account of the tankers.

Whatever the real scale, the attacks came after the US destroyed five Iranian oil tankers on Tuesday, 10 in a week by Central Command’s count, following Iranian missile launches at an American warship.

Brent crude crossed $100 on Wednesday for the first time since late July. This is day 194 of the war against the Iranian regime, and in those 194 days Brent has closed above $100 on only about 40........

© Eurasia Review