Daiju Wada is an international political scientist specializing in international security, counter-terrorism, and economic security. He currently serves as a Distinguished Professor at PRIME GLORY PTE. LTD. in Singapore and contributes as an external expert to geopolitical risk organizations, including Oxford Analytica and Gatehouse Advisory Partners. As CEO of Strategic Intelligence, he provides critical geopolitical intelligence to international consulting firms.

Amid intensifying geopolitical tensions, some analysts suggest that China–Japan relations have entered their most difficult phase since normalization in 1972. From your perspective, how would you evaluate the current situation?

As you noted, it can be said that Japan-China relations have entered their most difficult phase since 1972. The key point, however, is that this baseline would not significantly change regardless of who serves as Japan’s Prime Minister. Ever since Prime Minister Takaichi stated last autumn that “a Taiwan contingency would constitute a survival-threatening situation for Japan,” China’s stance toward Japan has become increasingly harsh. Yet, even under a different Prime Minister, today’s Japan-China relationship is defined by structural conflict, making major improvement difficult. As US-China confrontation intensifies, Japan cannot avoid maintaining and strengthening its ties with the US from the perspectives of defense, national security, and economic security—and it is precisely this posture that causes major dissatisfaction for China. Since US-Japan cooperation itself directly conflicts with China’s national interests, improving Japan-China relations is extremely difficult. Therefore, I view today’s bilateral relationship as something to be “managed.” While improvement is unlikely, the crucial factor for Japan-China relations today is managing a stable environment so that relations do not deteriorate unnecessarily due to unwarranted friction or accidental clashes.

Taiwan has increasingly become a geopolitical chokepoint amid escalating global tensions, the ongoing Russia–Ukraine war, and the unpredictable Iran–US military standoff. According to the CIA, “as a matter of intelligence,” Xi Jinping has instructed his military to be prepared to conduct an invasion of self‑governed Taiwan by 2027. In this context, Japan appears concerned that such a move could directly threaten its security and survival.How do you assess this scenario?

The view that the Chinese military may attempt a Taiwan invasion by 2027 is naturally a subject of active debate within Japan. Opinions vary widely: while some view a Chinese invasion of Taiwan as a........

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