Share this Story : Edmonton Journal Copy Link Email X Reddit Pinterest LinkedIn Tumblr

Opinion: When 'leverage' isn’t leverage: Why the separatists’ push for bargaining power is an empty bluff

As someone who has practised and studied intergovernmental relations in Canada for more than two decades, I find the Alberta separatists’ latest ad campaign mystifying.

“You don’t necessarily have to want to leave Canada,” they tell us. “You can vote for Option 2 (to hold a second referendum) simply to give Alberta more leverage in its dealings with Ottawa. ”The message has some merit, in theory.

The knife-to-the-throat approach can be effective as a last resort. But it depends on a credible threat, which is undermined by the separatists’ own messaging. A gambit as big as separation only creates leverage if the other side believes you are prepared and able to follow through. The moment you tell the rest of Canada that support for Option 2 isn’t a true metric for independence support, you have killed the credibility of the threat.

You don’t have to be a master negotiator to sense the folly. Anyone who’s played cards knows that a bluff only works because the other players think you’ve got the goods. You don’t push all your chips into the middle of the table while whispering, “Don’t worry, I’ve got nothing.”

Yet, that’s the latest move from a separatist movement struggling to find support in the final weeks of the campaign. We’ve seen this move fail before.

Former premier Jason Kenney made the same argument when convening Alberta’s 2021 equalization referendum. He........

© Edmonton Journal