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Nelson: Understand this Alberta — there'll be no new pipeline

Politicians of all stripes are playing a dangerous game

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They all know it’s a pipe dream. But with Canada’s future at stake, politicians need to play the game before finally acknowledging there’ll be no new pipeline to ship Alberta crude.

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Timing is what counts. Can this charade — that some company will step up to announce it’ll be the willing sucker to invest billions of dollars in an ultimately doomed project — last beyond the date of a vote on Alberta separation?

That’s the key. Because, for now, those supporting the idea of Alberta independence have nowhere near enough votes to carry such a momentous day. However, there’s almost certainly enough separatist backing to sign the petition, ensuring a provincial referendum goes ahead later this year.

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If this much-ballyhooed memorandum of understanding on energy development between Alberta and the federal government collapses in acrimony before that vote, it’ll become an entirely different ball game.

That’s because, for now, many Albertans, long since fed up with the disdain shown by Ottawa to this province, are giving Premier Danielle Smith enough support to work with Prime Minister Mark Carney on a deal that will bring these two political solitudes together in everyone’s best interest.

Though there has been some progress on more minor issues, the pipeline project — pumping more Alberta crude to B.C.’s northern coast for export to Asia — is the true litmus test. If that collapses in acrimony, then watch support for separation jump from the low 20 per cent range where it likely currently sits toward the 40 per cent mark.

Overnight, Canada’s future would truly be in play.

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And the worrying news for everyone still believing a vote for a united Canada is a nailed-on certainty is that this pipeline project, at least for the foreseeable future, is deader than the last dodo.

Ignore the politicians. They have their own reasons to continue this pretence. In the Liberals’ case, maybe until they hold a snap summer federal election and grab the parliamentary majority they crave before any referendum upsets the Canadian apple cart.

As for the UCP in Alberta, the pipeline charade must go on long enough to show how it has bent over backward to make a deal. Then, when it falls apart, it would provide Smith the cover to reluctantly back an independence vote, because there is no other road left to travel.

Imagine how that would change matters.

So, who is to be believed right now? Is there anyone to whom we can look for the unvarnished truth?

Step right up, Enbridge CEO Greg Ebel. Just last week, he told investors that his massive pipeline company, based here in Calgary, has no intention of wasting company money on such a project. It was music to the ears of shareholders as the stock jumped to an all-time high.

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Such rectitude is hardly surprising, seeing how Enbridge took a $600-million hit a decade ago when a similar project it was involved in — the Northern Gateway pipeline to transport Alberta crude to the West Coast — was cancelled because of Indigenous concerns.

“The rug was pulled out from underneath us,” is how Ebel now describes that bitter experience. “I don’t think investors or the infrastructure companies should be taking on the risk of development in jurisdictions that have historically created a challenge,” he added.

Other major pipeline companies, such as TC Energy and Kinder Morgan, will feel similar pain, given their previous involvement with the Energy East and Trans Mountain twinning projects.

Once bitten, twice shy. Better instead to take on work south of the border, especially after U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration rolled back a host of environmental rules to make investing in energy infrastructure much more worthwhile.

Politicians of all stripes are playing a dangerous game. Buckle up and hang on tight.

It’s going to be a wild summer.

Chris Nelson is a regular columnist.

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