*Originally published in 2025 and preserved as part of our archive project.Get E-International Relations delivered directly to your inbox, free of charge. As you sign up, consider becoming a paid subscriber to support our work.

Europe’s strategic environment in 2025 has ended the post-Cold War habit of complacency. A transactional Washington linking tariffs to security, a sustained Russian war, and visible European capability gaps have created a new asymmetry of leverage. The right response is neither decoupling nor denial but anchored autonomy: a European build-up of military enablers and economic resilience that reduces coercible dependence while reinforcing NATO’s core. This article traces the shock, the emerging European answer, the stubborn gaps, and sets out a practical path to autonomy without alliance erosion.

Trump’s Return: Europe’s Strategic Awakening

Donald Trump’s return to the White House in January 2025 sent shockwaves through European capitals, confronting them with unsettling strategic realities. Within weeks, the new administration signalled a decisive pivot towards the Indo-Pacific, shifting America’s strategic focus from Europe to China. Newly appointed U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth explicitly informed NATO allies they should anticipate substantial reductions in America’s military footprint on the continent, clearly reflecting Washington’s changing geopolitical priorities. Although Trump publicly reaffirmed NATO’s Article 5 commitment at the June 2025 NATO summit in The Hague, European leaders remain unsettled by Washington’s shifting stance on Ukraine. Positioning itself increasingly as a mediator rather than guarantor of defence, the U.S. repeatedly questioned – and temporarily suspended – military support for Ukraine’s defence against Russia’s ongoing invasion. Particularly alarming were December 2024 reports of proposed peace plans involving territorial concessions, coupled with suggestions that Washington might negotiate NATO’s eastern deployments directly with the Kremlin. These developments reignited deep-seated anxieties among frontline states. Governments in Warsaw, Tallinn, and Riga now openly fear a geopolitical compromise reminiscent of historical spheres-of-influence arrangements negotiated without their consent.

Against this backdrop of resurgent anxiety, Germany’s Chancellor-elect Friedrich Merz offered a stark public appraisal. A lifelong Atlanticist, Merz stunned observers by declaring on live television that, given recent U.S. actions, “the Americans, […] this administration, are largely indifferent to the fate of Europe.” His candid statement, unprecedented from a German leader, crystallized Europe’s emerging strategic calculus. Merz even suggested that European capitals might soon need to seek nuclear security assurances from Paris or London rather than Washington. Coming from the incoming leader of Europe’s largest economy, such comments marked a historic turning point. Merz warned it was now “five minutes to midnight for Europe” implying that, without swift action, the post-1945 security order risked unravelling entirely. Trump’s second presidency thus represents a clear strategic turning point for Europe. For decades, European nations took the U.S. security guarantee largely for granted. Today, they face the daunting prospect of navigating an uncertain future without assured American backing. European officials openly acknowledge that Europe remains incapable of independently defending itself, especially if a Washington–Moscow grand bargain were ever realized. Yet far from clarifying American intentions, events in mid-July 2025 deepened the fog. On 14 July Trump pivoted from overtures to overt pressure, vowing to levy secondary tariffs on Russia’s principal trading partners – including China, India and Türkiye – unless the Kremlin accepted “a quick, fair peace” within thirty days. Rather than reassuring Europeans, the threat underscored how abruptly U.S. policy could shift from conciliation to coercion. The episode exposed not only the risk of American disengagement but also the volatility of Washington’s engagement – reinforcing Europe’s case for credible strategic autonomy.

The urgency of this strategic imperative was further underscored on 28 July 2025, when President Trump explicitly leveraged America’s security umbrella in high-stakes trade negotiations with Brussels, tying economic concessions directly to U.S. defence commitments. Facing a U.S. ultimatum threatening 30% tariffs on EU exports by 1 August – and thinly veiled suggestions that NATO........

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