*Originally published in 2021 and preserved as part of our archive project.Get E-International Relations delivered to your inbox, free of charge. As you sign up, consider becoming a paid subscriber to support our work.

The latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) runs into 4000 pages of graphs, tables, and closely-argued technical analysis. But it is simply decrypted as signifying code red for humanity. That this is the independent, peer-reviewed consensus of 234 multi-disciplinary experts from every continent, gives it compelling significance. Our earth has heated-up by 1.2 degrees Celsius since pre-industrial times. This is due to human activity, especially greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels and deforestation. The critical 1.5°C threshold agreed in the 2015 Paris Agreement will be breached and the devastating 2°C level exceeded by mid-century if current trends are unchecked.

Africa is more vulnerable

What does progressive and significantly irreversible planetary transformation herald for Africa? The continent is warming at a slightly higher rate than the rest of the world and its surrounding sea is rising slightly more than the global mean. Africa’s greater susceptibility comes from small changes accumulating to produce big effects over time.

That is heightened  by the  characteristic of climate change to skew the extremes of normal weather fluctuations i.e. as everywhere becomes hot, warmer places get hotter still. Temperatures in the 40s Celsius are not unusual across Africa while numbers of days at 50C have doubled, especially in North Africa. Dry areas are becoming drier and wet areas wetter. Overall, Southern, Western, and Central Africa are expected to get less rain while Eastern Africa would get more.

Disaster and development impacts

Climate variability manifests visibly through the increased frequency and severity of weather-related disasters. Since the Millennium, disasters have affected at least a third of Africa’s 1.3 billion people.  All 54 nations are impacted with Kenya, Mozambique, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Somalia, and South Africa suffering most. Floods are the commonest catastrophe (64%) but droughts are deadliest (46% of........

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