*Originally published in 2023 and preserved as part of our archive project.Get E-International Relations delivered to your inbox, free of charge. As you sign up, consider becoming a paid subscriber to support our work.

Here is a quiz for our times. Think of a nation through the mouth of which passes 10–15 per cent of the world’s oil and commercial trade (20–25 per cent for Europe). Also, the undersea cables that transmit data between three continents including nearly all internet access to some territories. Besides being the life-giving conduit with 95% of goods to and from a giant landlocked neighbour. Further visualise that nation marooned within a tempestuous region of perpetually-conflicted neighbours. With piracy rampant along its 314 km waterfront. Finally, consider the cheek-by-jowl military bases of eight great powers in a tiny territory of 23,000 square km. This is Djibouti where, aeons ago, the earth split to create the Red Sea. It is still at the centre of tectonic shifts, but of the geo-political type. But this is not much talked about. Is Djibouti the calm centre of the violent political storms buffeting our world, or will it become the epicentre of the next global war?

The question stems from Djibouti’s location overlooking the Bab al-Mandab Strait that connects the  Indian Ocean via the Gulf of Aden to the Red Sea and Mediterranean. The economic security of the world’s most populous regions from China and India to Middle East, Horn of Africa, and Europe depend on free passage across this 28 km wide chokepoint. It is a rough neighbourhood. Across the water is the Houthi-dominated part of Yemen, torn by a proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia. And bordering Djibouti are totalitarian Eritrea, dysfunctional Somalia, and restive Ethiopia. The longstanding conflicts within and across their borders are accompanied by massive human rights abuses, hunger, disease, and  climate and environmental catastrophes. As well as population dislocations: some 5 million refugees and 16 million displaced.

The troubles of the Horn of Africa cannot be kept bottled therein. Perhaps why the French retained a military base in Djibouti after its independence in 1977. The United States has its only African base there. The Italian, Japanese, German, Spanish, Japanese and Saudi military are also present. China........

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