*Originally published in 2025 and preserved as part of our archive project.Get E-International Relations delivered directly to your inbox, free of charge. As you sign up, consider becoming a paid subscriber to support our work.

The once-close relationship between Russia and its strategic partner, Azerbaijan, a republic in the South Caucasus, has entered a period of deep crisis. This turn of events surprised many, especially considering that just a couple of days before Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Moscow and Baku had signed a pact for strategic cooperation. But history has shown that Russia’s partnerships with former Soviet republics often become tense when those states attempt to pursue an independent foreign policy. Azerbaijan is no exception.

Russia, as the self-declared heir of the Soviet Union, which collapsed in 1991, has long considered the post-Soviet space as its exclusive sphere of influence. It has consistently reacted with hostility toward the former Soviet republics that try to assert sovereignty in their foreign or security policies. Some of the examples include military invasion of Georgia in 2008; persistent political and economic pressure over Armenia under Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan since 2018; annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea in 2014, and a full-scale war against Ukraine in 2022. Azerbaijan now finds itself added to this list.

What makes Azerbaijan’s case distinctive is its resilience. With a population of around 10 million, it is a small state geographically, but not geopolitically. Its rich energy resources, strong alliance with Türkiye and Israel, and modern military – sharpened during the 2020 Second Karabakh War – have made it the strongest actor in the South Caucasus. Unlike Armenia and Georgia, Azerbaijan is less reliant on Russia and more willing to push........

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