A PROTRACTED blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has imperilled global food security. UN Secretary-General António Guterres has warned that if the disruption continues “through mid-year”, 32 million individuals will be “pushed into poverty”. Another 45m, he said, would face extreme hunger as fertiliser stocks run low and crop yields fall. More ominously, if severe disruptions persist to the end of the year, “we confront the spectre of a global recession with dramatic impacts on people, on the economy, and on political and social stability”.

While impacts of hindered oil and gas supply were instant, repercussions of fertiliser shortages have yet to unfold. According to the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), 27 per cent of global oil exports, about 20pc of LNG trade and up to 30pc of global fertiliser exports move through the Persian Gulf. Global food supply chains are deeply linked with energy markets, maritime movement and regional stability. Fossil fuel powers tube wells, agriculture machinery, cold storage, the food-processing industry and food transport. More importantly, fertiliser has a direct bearing on grain production. The 2007-2008 global food price upheaval raised cereal prices, pushing an estimated........

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