SINCE he launched a war of choice President Donald Trump has kept shifting the objectives of the joint US-Israel attack on Iran. This has compounded his dilemma of when to call it quits and unilaterally declare ‘victory’ especially as the war has not unfolded according to US expectations. If he sought regime change, as he frequently said, that is not happening. If anything, the smooth installation of the new Supreme Leader in Tehran, who symbolises defiance, indicates the regime has consolidated itself while it continues its asymmetric response by strikes on American bases, Israel and targets in GCC states.

Iran has experienced heavy losses but shown resilience in its fightback to what it regards as an existential threat. Its strategy of raising the costs of war by striking at the energy infrastructure of Gulf neighbours and blocking the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz has sent the oil price soaring and thrown global energy markets into turmoil. Iranian leaders have rejected Trump’s demand for “unconditional surrender” and said Tehran will not end the war on Washington’s terms.

Meanwhile, Trump has come under mounting pressure at home and abroad. Opinion polls show most Americans oppose the war. With his MAGA base divided over the war, the political pressure is evident, especially as his supporters fear a backlash in the midterm elections later this year. The widespread view is that Trump was talked into a costly, ill-defined course of action by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, which is contrary to American interests. The economic consequences of the conflict, miscalculated by Washington, are kicking in and can even bring the global........

© Dawn