THE Stockholm International Peace Research Institute has published its Yearbook 2026. SIPRI assesses that India has now operationally deployed 12 out of 190 nuclear warheads on a single nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine conducting deterrence patrols. This is a major strategic shift: for decades, New Delhi had stored its warheads and delivery systems separately, a deliberate posture designed to prevent accidental use. This shift in nuclear posture will have far-reaching implications for strategic stability in South Asia.

While Pakistan’s Foreign Office has shown no surprise over the development, strategic thinkers in Islamabad have focused on certain issues. First, the shift in India’s nuclear posture has raised concerns about New Delhi’s declared no-first use policy. Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh publicly cast doubts on India’s long-standing nuclear NFU policy during an August 2019 visit to Pokhran. This aligns with the BJP’s 2014 election manifesto that promised to “study in detail India’s nuclear doctrine, and revise and update it, to make it relevant to challenges of current times”. Hence, India’s actions suggest a profound shift from NFU to ‘strategic ambiguity’ in New Delhi’s nuclear policy.

Second, while the number of deployed nuclear warheads may vary, India’s strategic posture shows aggressive intent. Since 2016, ties between India and Pakistan have been viewed largely through the lens of crisis escalation and political tensions. In the absence of structural dialogue, this altered strategic posture of New Delhi has understandably set off alarm bells in Islamabad.

Third, the development has compressed the crisis response........

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