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Will China beat the US in AI?

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14.10.2026

IN China, people are being paid to fold clothes, wipe tables, and open microwave doors. Wearing virtual reality headsets and exoskeletons, they repeat the movements hundreds of times so humanoid robots can learn them. Across China, similar centres have people performing other painfully ordinary tasks. The work looks mundane, but it produces precious data.

It may seem like an odd way to begin a story about geopolitics, but like this piece, it offers im­­portant clues about who is better placed to ‘win’ the AI race — China or the US? The winner will have a much larger say in the next world order.

Donald Trump insists America must win the AI race, a contest his administration has likened to the Cold War’s ‘space race’. The analogy is attractive, but Michael Kratsios, Trump’s science advi­ser, later conceded the obvious problem. Unlike the race to the moon, this one has no finish line.

On the conventional scoreboard, the US rem­ains formidable. Stanford’s 2026 AI Index counts 59 notable American models in 2025 against China’s 35. US private AI investment exceeded China’s 23 times over, though this understates Chinese spending through government funds. Yet the report says the model performance gap has “effectively closed”, as of March 2026, the leading US model was ahead by just 2.7 per cent.

Pakistan does not need to win the AI race. It needs to win from AI.

Frontier models are not the only measure of success. China may be building its advantage by pushing AI into the physical economy.

In March, the US China Economic and Security Review Commission ‘warned’ of a reinforcing lo­­­op in China. Cheap, open........

© Dawn