A journalist friend recently asked me for my read on where American politics – and the wider geopolitical picture tied to it – is heading over the next year. I am no expert on geopolitics, nor a talking-head guru, but I do follow the political landscape keenly, particularly under President Trump, so I volunteered my take – six predictions. The predictions are based on the caveat that the current priorities of the President, primarily focused on aggrandising and enriching himself, do not change. Concurrently, no widespread election interference, voter suppression and outright rigging take place. And most importantly, the depressed mood of the Republicans, and the high motivation of the Democrats, is not somehow diluted by promises of cash payout and such. Barring these eventualities, my read is as follows.

Between the corruption swirling around the Trump family’s business dealings and the wholesale dismantling of American institutions – a hollowed-out State Department, a military leadership gutted and politicised – the material for impeachment proceedings is already sitting in plain view.

Between the corruption swirling around the Trump family’s business dealings and the wholesale dismantling of American institutions – a hollowed-out State Department, a military leadership gutted and politicised – the material for impeachment proceedings is already sitting in plain view.

Admittedly, none of the predictions is hopeful for the Republican Party. And the last two predictions are very worrisome for the world at large.

First, Republicans will lose between twenty and thirty House seats, gerrymandering notwithstanding. The stock market may be flying high and can post whatever numbers it wants, but its rise is not what the common American feels when they fill up their tank or buy groceries. Gasoline prices and inflation continue to make ordinary life miserable, and President Trump shows no real interest in addressing it. If that trajectory holds through November, the Democratic tsunami is on the........

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