It’s all but a mathematical certainty that Democrats will take the House in November’s midterms. And with Donald Trump’s polling numbers perilously low and dropping steadily, an even bigger potential prize has come into focus for Democrats: the U.S. Senate, with its constitutional power to confirm (or block) appointments to the Justice Department and Supreme Court. Trump has seemingly accepted this new reality and begun to act accordingly.

Recent history and present measurables tell us Democrats are primed to seize majority control of the House. The current margin is slim: 219 Republicans, 213 Democrats, 1 independent, and 4 vacancies. Trump currently holds subterranean approval ratings, and Democrats consistently lead Republicans by about 5 to 6 percentage points in polling on a generic ballot. And with Virginia’s adoption this week of a heavily gerrymandered redistricting scheme, Democrats hold a slight nationwide electoral advantage among all states that have recently rejiggered their maps for the upcoming House midterms. A Democratic gain of just five seats — which would be the smallest in over two decades for an opposition party — would ensure a majority.

That’ll be a big deal, of course. A Democratic-controlled House can block Trump’s legislative initiatives. House Democrats will surely hold hearings and issue subpoenas (including, perhaps, to the president himself) on everything from the Epstein files to war powers. And in theory, a majority-Democratic House can impeach Trump for his most extreme abuses of power — notwithstanding potential squeamishness after two prior failed........

© Daily Intelligencer