Some political campaigns just look doomed. That was the case with Minnesota governor Tim Walz’s previously announced bid for a third term. Yes, he might have survived and won. But a burgeoning scandal involving fraud in pandemic-era child care and Medicaid initiatives in Minnesota had become a huge national GOP talking point, reinforcing MAGA narratives of criminal immigrants entering the U.S. to rip off taxpayers and prey on law-abiding citizens. It guaranteed a 2026 gubernatorial campaign fought on exactly the wrong grounds for Walz and his party, offering a big blue-state upset opportunity for Republicans. Already wounded by his and Kamala Harris’s 2024 presidential loss and the controversy surrounding his bid for an unprecedented third consecutive four-year term, Walz wisely folded his campaign today.

The fraud scandal that engulfed the governor was real, involving scam artists — some but not all Somali Americans — who took advantage of hastily created and sloppily administered Medicaid-funded programs designed to get money out the door fast during the COVID-19 pandemic. The state and its DFL (Democratic-Farmer-Labor party, which is what Democrats in Minnesota call themselves in recognition of a New Deal–era party-fusion initiative) overseers have been investigating fraud allegations and prosecuting people involved in the scandal since 2021. But the Trump administration has massively intervened in recent months, with federal prosecutors issuing

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