In the small world of election handicappers, the Cook Political Report is more or less the OG, in business for 42 years. Like most OGs, the publication tends to be careful about risking its reputation. It doesn’t flat out make projections of election outcomes but instead classifies political races by degree of competitiveness on a spectrum that ranges from Solid to Likely to Lean to Tossup. Solid D or R races are noncompetitive entirely; Likely D or R races are competitive only to the extent that they are within shouting distance of an upset. Lean D or R races are definitely competitive (particularly in a partisan “wave” environment), and, of course, toss-ups are where most competitive national elections are won and lost.

Right now, Cook’s House race ratings show 43 competitive races, with 22 toss-ups, 11 races Lean D, and ten races Lean R. But it’s the nature of the seats being contested closely that has now led Cook’s House editor Erin Covey to suggest a likely outcome:

Despite a push for mid-decade redistricting, a massive reserve of cash, and an unpopular opposition party, Republicans are on track to lose their House majority this November.Unlike in 2018, the last midterm cycle when Republicans were in power, the most competitive House races are almost entirely in districts that President Donald Trump won. But, in large part due to his handling of the economy, the president is now deeply underwater........

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