While the battle for control of Congress has received the lion’s share of national media midterms attention, there’s obviously a lot going on down-ballot too — particularly across the governor’s races.

This year there are 36 gubernatorial contests that will help determine the direction of many states and perhaps create future candidates for the U.S. Senate or president (25 major party presidential nominees have been former governors, including 17 who became president). Currently there are 26 Republican governors and 24 Democratic governors. The governorships up for grabs this year are now split down the middle with 18 from each party.

The odds are high if not prohibitive that Democrats will hold a majority of these positions after the midterms (Silver Bulletin’s FLIPR forecasting model gives Democrats 85 percent odds of a gubernatorial majority, and predicts one that would put roughly two out of three Americans in the 27 states governed by Democrats).

But there are a lot of close gubernatorial races — 13 competitive contests, according to the wizards at the Cook Political Report. Six (Alaska, Arizona, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, and Oregon) lean Democratic, and three (Florida, Nebraska, and Texas) lean Republican. Four (Georgia, Kansas, Nevada, and Wisconsin) are rated as toss-ups. Here’s what to know about those contests.

Where Democrats are Favored

This is a contest complicated by Alaska’s unique electoral system in which the top four finishers in a non-partisan primary proceed to a general election that is determined via Ranked Choice Voting. In the primary, two Democrats finished first and second: former state legislators Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins and Tom Begich (scion of a famous political family and uncle of Alaska’s current Republican congressman). But Begich promptly dropped out and endorsed Kreiss-Tomkins, which put three Republicans in the general election, including Trump endorsee and conservative ideologue Bernadette Wilson; former Anchorage mayor Dave Bronson; and former Attorney General Treg Taylor. The divided GOP and a united Democratic Party guaranteed Kreiss-Tomkins the lead and probably first place in the general election balloting. According to Silver Bulletin’s polling averages, Kreiss-Tomkins has a steady 20-point lead over Wilson, the top-polling Republican, and is within striking distance of the majority that would make RCV irrelevant.

A late development in the race was the endorsement of Kreiss-Tomkins by Republican U.S. Senator Lisa Murkowski, who has crossed party lines before (notably in backing Mary Peltola against Sarah Palin for the House in 2022; she’s not backing Peltola’s Senate bid this year, though). If, as appears increasingly probable, Kreiss-Tomkins wins, it will represent a Democratic gain (GOP Governor Mike Dunleavy was term-limited). At the moment, both chambers of Alaska’s legislature are controlled by a bipartisan and independent coalition; that isn’t expected to change.

Incumbent Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs has been expected to face a tough challenge after very narrowly defeating Kari Lake in 2022; Donald Trump carried the state by a surprisingly large margin (five-plus-percent) in 2024. But aside from a national Democratic wave, Hobbs caught a break when the GOP nomination was won by conservative congressional ideologue Andy Biggs. It says a lot about Biggs’ viability that the normally very aggressive Republican Governors Association hasn’t put any money into the race. Silver Bulletin polling averages show Hobbs ahead by 9.4........

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