At the moment, the betting in Washington is that Republicans and Democrats will manage to achieve just enough agreement on must-pass spending legislation to avoid another government shutdown on January 30. So what will Congress do between now and the November midterms? All the spending measures will run out on September 30 at the end of the federal fiscal year, but lawmakers will likely find a way to kick the can past Election Day. The odds of a whole lot of bipartisan lawmaking remain very low, particularly during an election year when the two parties are hurling fiery missiles at each other on an hourly basis. Each party will promote a lot of what are known as “messaging bills,” legislation never intended to become law.

Maybe that’s enough for 2026. But Republicans conscious of the tough odds they face for maintaining control of Congress and eager to squeeze whatever they can from their remaining months of trifecta governing power have been talking for a while about something else: a second budget-reconciliation bill, using the same single-party procedures that gave us Donald Trump’s

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