The Democratic blue wave we’ve been observing from a distance throughout much of 2026 is nearing the shore. And despite a lot of close races and some questions about polling accuracy and one very weird situation in Alaska, polls and forecasts seem to confirm Democrats are sure to flip the House and are a good bet to take over the Senate, too. But it may take a while to confirm that result on and beyond November 3.

There isn’t enough public polling available in individual House races to provide a rigorous look at public opinion at the district level. But the forecasters who utilize the available (and sometimes private) polling along with historical data and national trends agree that Democrats should easily net the three seats necessary to take away Speaker Mike Johnson’s gavel.

Silver Bulletin’s FLIPR forecast gives Democrats a 95.1 percent chance of controlling the House and projects they will hold 240 seats in the next Congress, a net gain of 25 seats. On a more granular level:

• FLIPR shows 199 districts as “Solid D,” another 27 as “Likely D,” and six more as toss-ups, producing little opportunity for Republican upsets.

• Race to the White House gives Democrats a 93.9 percent chance of flipping the........

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