CounterPunch Exclusives

CounterPunch Exclusives

Who Trump’s Census Changes Could Leave Uncounted

Photograph by Nathaniel St. Clair

Back in February, the Trump administration announced sweeping overhauls that would radically weaken the Operational Test for the 2030 Census. The test is meant to serve as a dress rehearsal of sorts, allowing the Census to evaluate its operational mechanics before scaling them up nationwide. And it would appear that some of the administration’s most important changes are intended to undercount immigrant populations, though other populations will be affected as well.

As we noted in February, the administration sought several large-scale alterations that would undermine the utility of the test, including slashing the number of test sites from six to two and using Postal Service workers in place of trained Census Bureau enumerators to perform non-response follow-ups. The administration also opted to replace the standard short Census form with the much longer American Community Survey (ACS) questionnaire. The latter conveniently includes the same type of citizenship question that courts barred the administration from adding to the short-form. The Trump administration has further opted to move the ACS citizenship question earlier in the survey.

Despite substantial criticism, the Trump administration is moving forward with both the diminished suite of test sites and its plan to replace Census enumerators with mail carriers for non-response follow-up, a labor-intensive process of checking on households that do not respond on their own. The administration’s plan, which compromises the integrity of the Operational Test, presents a problem for overall Census validity that will fall hardest on groups that are already more likely to be undercounted.

First, some baselines.........

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