CounterPunch Exclusives

CounterPunch Exclusives

Five Big Takeaways From the May Jobs Report

Photo by Luis Villasmil

The May Jobs report was stronger than most people, including me, had expected. The 172,000 jobs created is not exactly earth-shattering, but in a context where immigration has been largely shut off and the labor force is barely growing, it is a lot. Plus, the two prior months’ data was revised up, so the average over the last three months is 188,000.

That looks pretty good, but the separate household survey looks less good. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, which by historical standards is low, but it’s almost a full percentage point higher than the 3.4% low hit in the spring of 2023.

More striking is that the rate did not fall given the rapid job growth reported in the establishment survey. The household survey actually showed a small drop in employment. To be clear, the surveys often are not aligned, so this discrepancy is not especially striking, but it is worth noting.

Anyhow, I have five main takeaways from the May report.

1. Jobs are growing far faster than the breakeven rate 2. Wages are not keeping pace with inflation 3. Workers are still reluctant to leave jobs 4. Job-killing AI is not visible in the data  5. Self-employment is lagging 

1. Jobs are growing far faster than the breakeven rate

2. Wages are not keeping pace with inflation

3. Workers are still reluctant to leave jobs

4. Job-killing AI is not visible in the data 

5. Self-employment is lagging 

Good Job Growth, but Heavily Concentrated

The entire 172,000 job growth came from three sectors: leisure and hospitality, local governments, and healthcare and social services. These sectors added 70,000 jobs, 55,000 jobs, and 47,200 jobs, respectively. To be clear, other sectors added some jobs. Construction added 17,000 jobs, manufacturing added 7,000 jobs, but with sectors like finance........

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