In his recent social media diatribes, Donald Trump has complained that our allies are ungrateful for the war he has initiated against Iran. He is angered that they aren’t anxious to send in their military forces to win a war that he claims is already won. Trump also doesn’t seem to think it matters that he never consulted, or even warned, any US allies, with the notable exception of Israel.

To anyone not in the Trump cult, these complaints qualify as batshit crazy. Trump’s war is a massive whack to economies across the world. These countries are not grateful for an economic hit that is equivalent to a massive weather disaster or serious pandemic.

How bad the economic hit ends up being depends on both how long the war continues and the lasting damage it does to physical facilities. But a cheap and easy calculation is to look at how much the rise in oil prices costs countries relative to the size of their economies.

This is the picture based on the assumption that oil prices have risen $40 a barrel from the pre-war level and remain there for a full year. I don’t have a crystal ball that tells me whether prices will stay at this level. There are many analysts arguing that they could go considerably higher. And if the Hormuz Straits are opened soon, whether by military action or a peace agreement, they will presumably move most of the way back to their pre-war level. But a $40 rise should be a reasonable starting point.

As I noted previously, the countries of Asia look to be the hardest hit from these price increases. South Korea would be spending an additional amount equal to 2.2 percent of GDP for its oil, followed by India at 1.8 percent, and Canada at 1.4 percent. For a benchmark, 1.5 percent of GDP in the United States would be around $3,700 per household.

This measure of the economic hit is far from complete. In addition to higher oil prices, the price of natural gas has doubled in Europe and Asia. Prices of other exports from the Gulf region, notably fertilizers, have also soared. In addition, the rest of the world has at least temporarily lost a major market for its exports.

There are also some positive entries. For countries outside the Gulf region that are major oil exporters, notably Canada, Brazil, and Mexico, the jump in oil prices is a windfall. But the hit in terms of higher oil prices can give a good first approximation of the costs our allies are bearing as a result of the war for which Trump says they should be grateful.

The Trumpian argument is the Iranian regime was dangerous, and everyone should be glad to see it weakened, if not actually overthrown. There are........

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