It seems ironic now but exactly a month before war erupted in the Gulf, oil industry news website Oilprice.com warned of a looming threat to global energy markets.

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It wasn't bombs and missiles, nor retaliatory strikes on oil infrastructure or the closure of vital shipping lanes.

It was China's rapid electrification of its heavy truck fleet. In 2025, it reported, sales of electric trucks in China had trebled from the year before. Some 230,000 new battery powered trucks had taken to the road, threatening demand for diesel now and LNG in the not-too-distant future as the fuel sources for China's heavy transport.

By 2028, it estimated half China's truck sales would be for electric vehicles, which wasn't good news from the oil industry's perspective. The article warned the rapid take up of battery powered trucks and other electric vehicles would seriously disrupt Chinese and global fuel markets.

In December, the number of electric trucks had already overtaken diesel vehicles in China. LNG-powered vehicles, which China has encouraged in its bid to cut emissions, will soon be in the rearview mirror as well, especially if the current oil shock persists.

It's not just trucks. Electric city buses now account for 100 per cent of sales while inter-city coaches lag behind at just 6 per cent of the market. Still, China's embrace of electrified public transport in urban areas offers considerable insulation from the diesel scarcity that's alarming countries like Australia, which is still dependent on the fossil fuel.

Not that we haven't noticed, at least when it comes to our own cars. Popular Chinese brand BYD has reported a spike in local interest in its EV range since the war began. In February, a month before hostilities erupted, EVs recorded its strongest monthly market share at 11.8 per cent. China also overtook Japan as a source of new vehicle sales.

The promise of improved battery technology which manufactures predict will reduce charging times to five minutes and the harsh reality of relying on oil from a notoriously volatile part of the world is likely to make demand grow even further.

But catch-up is needed. While there was a surge in the EV charger rollout last year, range anxiety persists, especially in regional areas. And in the city, more provisions are needed for households which don't have off-street parking and can't charge their vehicles at home. Every service station really should double as a charging point.

This oil shock should be a wake-up call - just as previous ones should have been. Governments are scrambling to deal with the emergency but they should also have an eye on the long game just as China has.

But I won't be holding my breath. After the last energy shock in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the call went out to impose a windfall tax of gas companies making a motza out of Australian exports. An energy shock later and we're still talking about it when we should have acted four years ago.

I don't want to but can't help suspecting once this crisis abates, we'll slide back into the complacent SNAFU we were in before. Situation normal - you know the rest.

HAVE YOUR SAY: Is enough being done to encourage a switch to EVs, including heavy trucks and buses? Has the fuel crunch made you reconsider buying an EV? Will we ever learn from oil shocks? Email us: echidna@theechidna.com.au

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IN CASE YOU MISSED IT:

- Australians are being warned by a Coalition senator that the nation may no longer be able to rely on the United States for protection and it needs to become more self reliant.

- Australia's headline inflation rate fell before the Iran war upended the global economy, but economists expect price growth to bounce back with a vengeance in March.

- In a bid to shore up manufacturing jobs, another struggling metals smelter will receive a $2 billion bailout from the government in return for investing in renewable energy.

THEY SAID IT: "Always first draw fresh breath after outbursts of vanity and complacency." - Franz Kafka

YOU SAID IT: A strong odour of rat lingers over a futures trading flurry in New York 15 minutes before Donald Trump announce he'd postponed of his threat to Iran's power infrastructure.

"Everything DT has done to date has been tinged with suspicion and evidence that it has helped him make more money," writes Tom. "Among his few actual motives, is to make more money and to make his head look bigger. If this was South America, the headlines would be different. The man is a loose cannon in a china shop (yes I know a mixed metaphor) but I have no faith the American political and/or justice systems will ever bring him to book."

Lee writes: "Nothing would surprise me in Trump's world and his ongoing assistance to his family and mates to make money. However, I think he TACO'd waiting for the next round of Epstein files to put more focus on him. If it takes a while, he will use Cuba as his distraction. If it happens soon Iran is in trouble, because he will go at them again, just to move focus."

"Just the concept that the leaders in America and Israel are playing a gigantic gambling game with people's lives chills me to the core," writes Patricia. "Western powers have no moral high ground (and probably never had) but this race to the bottom is what is going to lead to the extinction of humanity. If only people could learn to recognise the truth from the fake and vote these people into irrelevance."

Bill writes: "Trump is the grifter in chief. Big money was in on the fix. Move on. It is what it is. Three more years, with maybe an impeachment or two."

"And on February 17, Eric Trump made a large strategic investment in XTEND, an Israeli AI from an autonomous weapons company, with US Department of Defence contracts up the wazoo. A pure coincidence, I'm sure," writes Jane.

Peter writes: "Of course Trump manipulates the markets for financial advantage! His family has already made billions by leveraging his incumbency for gain. It's a rat the size of a cat, feeding off the corpses of war dead."

Ian writes: "I wouldn't believe a single syllable that wafts from Trump's sulphurous breath. I don't think he could tell a truthful word even if he wanted to, so ingrained is deceit in his psychology. His is also the most corrupt administration in the history of his country, and probably any democratic country, ever. That his son owns a gambling company allowing betting on US government decisions is one extraordinary example. His regulation of crypto is another notorious example, from which he has made billions. His MAGA base is oblivious to his crimes, with their cult-like religious fervour, making it less likely he's ever be brought to account, assuming their democracy survives."

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