Guess with all the heckling and name-calling and claims Premier Danielle Smith’s UCP government was on the ropes and headed for a fall you’d think the latest numbers rolled out Friday could be described with one four-letter word.

And the political arithmetic is ugly — just not for Smith and the UCP.

For all the recent fear and loathing and hand-wringing about the UCP, Smith and her party are actually riding high — in a second straight poll with the same winning margin.

13 percentage points.

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First Leger a month ago and then Abacus Data now. Smith’s UCP up on Naheed Nenshi’s NDP by 13 points.

The UCP are ahead in battleground Calgary where the NDP won more seats than the UCP in the last election.

They are ahead in rural Alberta by a landslide.

In Edmonton where the NDP holds every seat in the Alberta legislature the Nenshi NDP’s lead is only six points.

Smith’s UCP enjoy big leads with Albertans 30 and over.

They lead with men. They lead with women.

Even with those aged 18 to 29 the UCP and NDP are neck and neck.

These are not my numbers. I warned folks in the NDP this is how it would likely roll out if what remained of the Nenshi machine took over the NDP.

For those who voted for Smith last time, 85 per cent are sticking with the UCP.

One in four who voted NDP are not hanging in with their choice.

Your scribbler sat down with Smith after she won the UCP leadership and she outlined her strategy to win the 2023 Alberta election.

Smith wanted to hold as many seats as she could in the province’s heartland, a big part of the UCP base of support.

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Then she hoped to win 10 to 15 legislature seats in total from either Calgary or Edmonton.

That would give Smith a majority government.

The deep thinkers thought Smith’s plan was stupid. They couldn’t fathom she was not trying to win every vote.

But Smith wasn’t stupid.

Smith did score huge in the heartland, won zero seats in Edmonton but 12 in Calgary. She won a majority government.

The latest polls show she is holding her base of support and would actually do better now.

So the usual mouthpieces can keep complaining.

No doubt there will be Smith-hating rocket scientists on platforms like Reddit who will maintain this is all a big conspiracy and the NDP are winning hearts and minds all over the place.

Others with nothing better to do can send silly emails less insightful than a taunt in an elementary school playground.

They can shoot the messenger but can’t shoot down the mathematics.

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Where is the uprising we were told to expect?

I am more than willing to cover uprisings. So are other newshounds.

I reported on the massive protests in the early days of the government of former premier Ralph Klein.

But talk about toppling the Smith government … well, it doesn’t look like it’s going to be toppled anytime soon.

Expressions of outrage against Smith haven’t gained any more traction than a vehicle in the ditch in the middle of a blizzard.

There was no mass walkout of workers against the government. I was waiting for it.

Then there were the campaigns to gather signatures to fire UCP members of the legislature, a battle so far turning into a bad joke with no one coming remotely close to their goal.

A leader of one of the failed campaigns to fire UCP MLAs said they felt real outrage at the Smith government. Fair enough.

But they said they assumed the outrage would trickle into society.

It has, with some people, but as of this day not enough Albertans to win an election. That could change but it will not change by whining and dismissing the facts on the ground.

On Friday, Smith reveals talks are moving forward with Ottawa on dealing with Alberta’s legitimate beefs. The smart money says we will hear more developments soon.

The premier appears unfazed by those individuals, such as Nenshi, who accuse her of being a separatist.

“I am already advocating for Canada. I am already leading that side and I am doing it with my actions,” says Smith.

“Albertans have real grievances. Ignoring them does not make them go away.”

© Calgary Herald