The nose count on Thursday will make some people sit up and take notice.

When Albertans were asked how Alberta Premier Danielle Smith would vote if Alberta independence is on the Oct. 19 referendum ballot, a majority of those counted figure Smith would vote with the separatists.

Those who think Smith would personally vote to separate from Canada. 53 per cent.

Smith voting to stay in Canada. 29 per cent.

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Not sure. 18 per cent.

In the same crunching of numbers by Abacus Data, those who would vote for Alberta to cease to be a province in Canada and become its own country. 26 per cent with 64 per cent opposed and the rest undecided.

Of course, Alberta independence is not on the ballot yet and the vote is several months from now and our world could turn upside down between now and then.

For her part, Smith has said too many times to count how she and her UCP government support a sovereign Alberta within a united Canada.

Smith says her government is negotiating with the federal Liberal government in Ottawa to get a much better deal for Alberta within Canada as she tries to convince Albertans this country can actually work.

Here is what Smith told me recently.

“If we make a good argument and we demonstrate we can undo some of the damage of the last 10 years I think we will be able to persuade Albertans to have some hope again.”

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Of course, the Alberta premier also admits there are many sorts, especially among UCP voters, who are fed up with Ottawa.

Meanwhile, the political opposition bangs the drum tarring and feathering Smith as a separatist premier leading a separatist party and a separatist government.

There is the Elbows Up crowd who slimed Smith as a traitor when she stood up to those in Canada who wanted to impose a tax on Alberta oil going to the U.S. and pushed for negotiations with the Americans.

For his part, Nenshi will be out there knocking on doors and probably putting up lawn signs along with the likes of former premier Jason Kenney and former deputy premier Thomas Lukaszuk, the main man for the anti-independence side.

Nenshi says he will play a “very large role” in the pro-Canada cause.

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On Thursday it doesn’t take long for Nenshi to take his first jab at the premier.

“I have to. I’m a proud Canadian. Someone has to stand up for Canada because Danielle Smith sure as hell isn’t doing it. Someone has got to pick up the slack for the mess she created.”

The Alberta NDP leader knows the lines of his well-worn script by heart.

He accuses Smith of “pandering to the separatists.” He says the premier is just wanting to pick fights with the government in Ottawa.

“Even though she is going to come out and say: I stand for Canada and I will campaign for Canada, she will do so half-heartedly at best.”

Nenshi says the UCP members of the legislature “have been whipped to not say they oppose separation.”

The NDP leader goes so far as to say Smith has “lost the moral authority to govern” and he wants an election now and he says the NDP would win.

But there lies the problem.

Nenshi can go ahead and say fighting for Canada is above politics but the former mayor of Calgary is a very polarizing political figure.

If I write very in capitals VERY this should help the NDP faithful see the picture.

Poll after poll after poll after poll has Smith’s UCP leading Nenshi’s NDP.

In a Leger nose count just a month ago, Smith’s UCP was 13 points up on Nenshi’s NDP, a six-point jump for the UCP since last fall.

There have even been some rumblings and grumblings in the NDP ranks over Nenshi’s leadership since the avalanche of people who signed up with the NDP expected they were handing the party a political rock star when they backed Nenshi.

Then there is the fact separatism is not the biggest issue for many people.

If most Albertans do believe Smith will vote separatist, as this poll shows, and a sizable majority say they are not voting for Alberta independence, as this poll also shows, then how do Smith and the UCP end up leading in the polls?

Fill in those blanks and connect those dots.

© Calgary Herald