Ukraine entered this war as the presumed underdog—smaller economy, fewer troops, and seemingly overmatched by a nuclear-armed Russia.

Early expectations of a quick collapse proved wrong because two big forces collided: Ukraine’s own adaptation and resolve, and Europe’s decision that defending Kyiv was, in practice, defending Europe. That political will translated into money, weapons, training, and intelligence support on a scale and with a speed that Moscow did not anticipate.

The result is a grinding third year in which Russia has advanced in places but still not broken Ukraine’s state, army, or economy—and in which the very character of warfare has been rewritten by drones, long-range precision strikes, and an unprecedented air-defence duel.

On the battlefield, the single biggest operational surprise has been the drone revolution. Ukraine industrialized “good-enough” unmanned systems—cheap FPV strike drones, long-range one-way attack drones, and uncrewed surface vessels (USVs)—to impose constant pressure on Russian logistics, airbases, and the Black Sea Fleet. Those naval drones forced Russia to pull major combatants away from Sevastopol toward safer ports, degrading its ability to blockade Ukraine’s coast and contributing to a remarkable Ukrainian asymmetric sea campaign.

Long-range strike has been the other pillar. The United States transferred ATACMS with 300-kilometre range in 2024, giving Ukraine new options against high-value targets deep behind the lines. That capability, combined with European Storm Shadow/SCALP and Ukrainian-built long-range drones, underpins the campaign hitting Russian oil infrastructure. Through August 2025, independent tallies indicate those drone strikes have taken roughly 10–17 percent of Russia’s refining capacity offline at various points—an effect visible at the pump and in emergency policy responses inside........

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