Trump’s absurd and illegal plan will backfire on him

July 14, 2026 — 11:58am

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Four and a half months in and still unresolved, the war in the Middle East has revealed an apparent absence of strategic thought by the Trump administration. Donald Trump’s plan to impose a US toll on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz reinforces that conviction.

The ceasefire, bought with promises to release billions of dollars of frozen Iranian funds and hundreds of billions of reconstruction aid, foundered last week over what has emerged as an intractable issue – control of the strait.

Somehow, the US planners overlooked or underestimated the leverage Iran could gain by closing the strait by threatening ships passing through it with drones and missiles.

They thought a demonstration of America’s military might, and the decapitation of Iran’s former leadership at the outset of the war, would force Iran’s surrender and possibly lead to regime change.

Instead, the war gave Iran an understanding of how powerful its ability to threaten traffic via the strait could be, and of the protection that control of the strait it could provide against future attacks by the US and Israel.

It agreed to allow safe passage through the strait during the ceasefire, but didn’t agree – and the memorandum of understanding the US signed didn’t insist – that it relinquished that control if and when a permanent end the hostilities was agreed.

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