As NATO’s annual nuclear drills unfold this month (October 13-23), an internal change is taking shape that may mark the end of the alliance as we have known it: NATO 3.0.

NATO 3.0 is a rebalancing, not a new treaty: Europe is expected to assume primary responsibility for its conventional defense.

Launched earlier this year as the vision of Elbridge Colby, the undersecretary of defense for policy in the Trump administration, the concept aims to let Washington wind down much of its conventional military footprint in Europe – while keeping the American nuclear umbrella in place and preserving US strategic leadership.

As experts Rebecca Lissner and Turner Ruggi note, the shift is already visible. Roughly 5,000 troops are being withdrawn from Germany, a rotational brigade left Romania without replacement, and further reductions of 25,000 to 40,000 troops are under discussion. NATO Force Model contributions may be cut by a third to a half.

Nuclear forces, by contrast, are meant to remain the American contribution, possibly with expanded basing of dual-capable aircraft. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has described the process as making the alliance “more European” in order to keep it “transatlantic”.

This predates Trump: under Biden, Washington already sought to shift Ukraine’s burden........

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