The latest diplomatic push to end hostilities between Lebanon and Israel offers a rare opportunity for a region exhausted by decades of conflict. Yet the optimism surrounding the new US-backed framework agreement must be tempered by a sober understanding of Lebanon’s political realities, security challenges, and humanitarian crisis. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun’s appeal to the United States to continue standing beside Lebanon reflects not only gratitude for American diplomatic engagement but also a recognition that the country’s future depends on sustained international commitment rather than symbolic declarations.

Lebanon has endured repeated cycles of war, political paralysis, economic collapse, and institutional decay. Every ceasefire has been accompanied by hopes of lasting peace, only to be undermined by unresolved disputes, competing regional interests, and the absence of a comprehensive political settlement. The current agreement, which calls for Hezbollah’s disarmament, a phased Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, and the deployment of the Lebanese Armed Forces, represents perhaps the most ambitious attempt in years to reshape the security landscape. Whether it succeeds will depend less on the text of the agreement than on the willingness of all stakeholders to honor both its spirit and its obligations.

President Aoun’s Independence Day message to US President Donald Trump carried a clear diplomatic signal. By urging Washington to continue supporting Lebanon’s institutions, army, and people, he acknowledged that the country’s stability cannot be built solely through military arrangements. Lebanon requires functioning state institutions capable of enforcing sovereignty, rebuilding public trust, and delivering basic services. Without strengthening the state itself, no security framework can produce lasting peace.

The agreement, however, begins from an inherently difficult premise. Hezbollah has categorically rejected the framework, particularly its disarmament provisions. For decades, Hezbollah has justified its military arsenal as essential for resisting Israeli occupation and protecting Lebanon from external threats. While many Lebanese support strengthening the national army instead of maintaining an independent armed movement, others........

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