In recent weeks, Washington has once again amplified what it calls the “China nuclear threat,” reviving allegations and rhetorical pressure at a strategically sensitive moment in global arms control diplomacy. On February 25, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio publicly insisted that any future nuclear arms control agreement must include China. Around the same time, CNN released an “exclusive” report citing anonymous intelligence sources who alleged that China conducted a nuclear test in 2020. Shortly before that, Christopher Yeaw, a senior official in the US State Department’s Bureau of Arms Control and Nonproliferation, raised similar claims.

The timing and coordination of these statements are not coincidental. They come at a moment of heightened uncertainty in global nuclear governance, particularly following the expiration of the New START Treaty between the United States and Russia. Against that backdrop, Washington’s renewed focus on China appears less about evidence-based arms control concerns and more about strategic positioning.

The United States has long monitored China’s nuclear modernization. Annual Pentagon and State Department reports routinely analyze China’s missile deployments, silo construction, and warhead estimates. Notably, the US Arms Control Treaty Compliance Report published in April last year concentrated primarily on Russia’s suspected supercritical tests. Meanwhile, the December Report to Congress on Military and Security Developments Involving the Peoples Republic of China detailed China’s expanding arsenal and missile infrastructure, yet made no mention of any alleged 2020 nuclear test.

If there were concrete, verifiable evidence of a Chinese nuclear detonation in 2020, why did it not appear in those official assessments? Why did Washington wait until the expiration of a major bilateral treaty with Russia to publicize such a claim? These questions inevitably raise doubts about the political motivations behind the narrative.

From a technical standpoint, clandestine nuclear tests are difficult to conceal. The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO), along with national........

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