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Iran’s strategic miscalculation: How Tehran alienated the Gulf

94 0
02.03.2026

A well-known proverb warns that sometimes speaking too much exposes more than silence ever could. That wisdom seems particularly relevant today in light of remarks made by Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council. His recent statement warning Gulf states that their territories could become targets if used by the United States has unintentionally revealed the widening strategic gulf between Tehran and its regional neighbors.

Instead of projecting deterrence, the message underscored a troubling reality: Iran appears increasingly disconnected from the political and diplomatic landscape of the Gulf. At a moment when de-escalation and mediation were still possible, Tehran’s rhetoric – and more importantly, its actions – have pushed even its traditional interlocutors into positions of caution, if not outright opposition.

For years, Gulf diplomacy has operated on a delicate balance – seeking engagement with Iran while maintaining security partnerships with Western allies. Countries such as Oman have historically played the role of quiet mediators, facilitating dialogue between Tehran and Washington when tensions threatened to spiral into conflict.

Yet recent Iranian responses to Israeli and American actions have not distinguished between adversaries and neutral parties. In doing so, Tehran has undermined the credibility of mediation itself. Striking or threatening states that have actively sought to prevent escalation risks dismantling the very diplomatic bridges Iran may one day need.

This shift is particularly striking because Oman has long been perceived as one of the few regional actors capable of maintaining trust........

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