Will Anti-Socialist Democrats Swing the Midterms?

There’s a hidden demographic on the left that many polls possibly are not accounting for.

John Kudla | October 31, 2026

The 2026 midterm elections have several interesting dynamics.  We have a president who has been elected twice, is considered unpopular, and has rarely polled above 50 percent popularity during his six years in office.  The economy is growing, but food prices are elevated, and inflation is creeping up.  America has been fighting an off-and-on war against Iran.  Plus a growing socialist movement has latched onto the face of the Democrat party like an alien egg-layer from a science fiction movie.  We still don’t know what will pop out if they win seats in Congress.

I have discussed the phenomenon of the silent Republican voter, or the hidden Trump vote, several times, notably here, here, and here.  This phenomenon is real and occurred recently in the 2016, 2020, and 2024 presidential elections and the 2018 midterms.

Polls show Democrats leading most Senate races, and many pundits claim they are a shoo-in to win the House of Representatives.  According to Gallup, in the 3rd quarter of 2026, political party affiliation is Democrat 30 percent, Republican 24 percent, and independent 46 percent.  In 2024, Q3 numbers were D 30 percent, R 29 percent, and I 41 percent, indicating that 5 percent of the electorate switched from Republican to independent.

If we include leaners, things look even worse.  The 2026 numbers show Democrats at 50 percent and Republicans at 37 percent.  According to Gallup, Democrats gained 4 points over the past two years, while Republicans lost 10 points.  Pew Research paints a slightly different picture.  Here, Democrat affiliation is up 2 points, while Republicans are down 4.

There are two ways to look at this.  One is that Democrats are doing a bang-up job of persuading voters that the economy sucks, and a significant fraction of Republicans agree.

The other is that Republicans are still there, but they aren’t participating in political polls and may not want to admit they are Republican or leaning that........

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