Foreign Policy > Hungary

Hungary: A Thorny Transition After The Election

While the victors celebrate, the European Union moves to tighten its grip on Péter Magyar’s incoming government. Without Washington’s support, Budapest will have a hard time avoiding being overwhelmed by Brussels’s “friendly embrace.”

Istvan Toth | April 17, 2026

The Red Pill of Reality

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and his Fidesz party were unexpectedly defeated in the April 12 parliamentary elections. Supporters of Péter Magyar’s Tisza party are celebrating their victory, having received nods of approval and handshakes from Brussels and many other European capitals. Eurocrats are rushing to declare the end of the “Orbán era.”

However, Tisza did not win because its platform was more compelling. Hungarian society simply craved change. Voters, particularly younger generations, wanted new people in politics. This demand for a shake-up was irrational. For most citizens, the mere prospect of change became paramount. Whether those changes would be for better or worse wasn’t even the question.

The Blue Pill of Ignorance and Illusion: Deconstructing the Defeat

A record voter turnout of around 80 percent and striking enthusiasm among young people were defining features of the election. Tisza secured 138 seats in the 199-seat parliament, leaving Fidesz with just 55. This created a sense of Orbán’s complete defeat. However, a closer look reveals that things are not as clear-cut as they seem.

3.1 million voters cast ballots for Tisza, compared to 2.25 million for Fidesz. As you can see, the real difference is far smaller than the seat distribution suggests. In terms of party lists, the rivals are roughly equal: Tisza received 45 seats, while Fidesz received 42. The election outcome hinged on regional voting. In single-member districts, Tisza won 93 seats, leaving Fidesz with only 13.

The outgoing government misread sentiment outside of Budapest. Fidesz should have offered voters new candidates—individuals unconnected to the power structure and unburdened by the past. Instead, this election devolved into a referendum on Orbán and his supporters at the local level—a vote that the ruling party lost decisively. Essentially, it was a protest vote that created an opportunity for regime change but did not guarantee long-term support for the winners.

Shenzi’s Clan Gains Momentum

Less than 24 hours after Magyar’s party won the election, the European Commission outlined 27 demands for the Hungarian government to meet to unlock €35 billion in frozen EU aid. The new authorities are under pressure to swiftly dismantle Orbán’s “Hungarian path.” This includes overhauling the judicial and law enforcement systems, implementing EU anti-corruption policies, complying with EU rules on migrant intake, and—crucially—completely reshuffling the power structure at all levels, including the removal of key state institution leaders.

However, no one in the European Commission is willing to guarantee the swift release of funds. According to Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Hungary still has “much work to be done, as Hungary is coming back to the European path.” This masks the Eurocrats’ traditional tactic of imposing left-leaning ideologies on society, which erode foundations and create obstacles to unity around conservative traditions.

Magyar has little choice; his victory was largely due to support from Brussels bureaucrats. Now, he must pay the piper, a prospect the future prime minister is unlikely to relish. He will have to abandon Orbán’s levers of pressure on the EU. This includes unblocking €90 billion in credit for Ukraine, consenting to direct negotiations with Kyiv about EU accession, and approving the 20th package of sanctions against Russia. All just to be allowed a seat at the negotiating table.

A More Serious Challenge Looms: Economic Neutrality

In the near future, Hungary’s new leader will face an even more serious challenge: preserving the country’s policy of economic neutrality and maintaining stable energy prices. Vienna, Berlin, and Brussels have long sought to persuade Budapest to abandon its plans to build the Paks II nuclear power plant. Without influence in the EU, the incoming prime minister won’t be able to defend his country’s national interests and will be forced to back down.

The End of a “Golden Age”

This will directly impact U.S.-Hungarian economic cooperation. Magyar isn’t strong enough to maintain the “golden age” of economic collaboration with the United States that was established under Orbán. Brussels won’t tolerate competition and will do everything in its power to push Washington out of key growth areas. Eurocrats will systematically dismantle the results achieved by former President Donald Trump, aiming to strip Hungary of its reputation as one of America’s key European allies.

Critical agreements regarding oil and LNG procurement, as well as the nuclear deal, are at risk. These agreements are key elements of the strategy to establish Budapest as a significant force for American economic power in Europe. While a complete rupture of contracts is unlikely, renegotiating existing agreements and employing bureaucratic stalling tactics around their implementation are very possible.

No matter how much he wants it, Magyar’s negotiating position with the EU is weak. He holds few cards. Bureaucrats in Brussels won’t waste time and will try to strip the new government of its resolve by increasing the use of loans, grants, and other financial instruments.

A Rude Awakening Is Inevitable

Despite Magyar’s anti-Orbán leanings, he will soon witness the Eurocrats’ hypocrisy firsthand. Brussels doesn’t need a strong, independent Hungary. It doesn’t want a country that supports close economic ties with the U.S. and pursues an autonomous, successful economic policy within the European Union.

Tisza’s leader still has to understand that defending his country’s economic and national interests will inevitably lead him down the same path as Orbán. Hungary’s people won’t accept mere imitation. The opposition’s parliamentary victory is illusory and fragile. A protest vote can quickly turn into a revolt against its own leader.

Time is of the essence. Eurocrats will exploit this moment to their fullest advantage, using Magyar to cement Hungary's separation from its trusted allies, primarily the United States. Orbán will undoubtedly continue to resist Brussels’ ill intentions in the parliament and on the streets as he transitions to the opposition. However, he can only do so much.

This is now Magyar’s challenge. Whether he can meet this challenge will determine if he becomes a leader who prioritizes EU dictates over his country’s interests or a politician capable of preserving and building upon his predecessor’s achievements. It’s worth remembering that Magyar hails from Fidesz.

Hungary isn’t lost to America yet. The U.S. can effectively check the arrogance of Brussels bureaucrats by establishing direct contact with the new government before the Europeans box them in. By defending its interests here, Washington can help restore strength to the weakened and bolster faith among the doubtful. After all, the Hungarian case is a marathon, not a sprint.

Image: Norbert BanhalmiNorbert Bánhalmi, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons, unaltered.

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