In Israel’s convoluted political discourse, just days before a general election that many regard as one of the most consequential in the country’s history, the prevailing perception is that the current coalition and the opposition parties are running neck and neck.

This is far from the full picture. Most polls suggest that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his far-right and ultra-Orthodox partners will fall short of a parliamentary majority. Most opposition parties, at least until the last polling station closes and the final results become known, have ruled out forming a coalition government with the parties that primarily represent Israel’s Palestinian citizens, commonly referred to as the “Arab parties”. As a result, the opposition could also struggle to secure the support needed to govern.

If the opinion polls prove accurate on Tuesday and the opposition can overcome this obstacle to forming a governing majority, a new government could emerge, led by retired Lieutenant General Gadi Eisenkot, a former Israeli military chief of staff from the centre right.

However, the fundamental question is not simply whether the Israeli electorate will decide to change the personnel in government but whether the new leadership will also bring about a change in policy on the most crucial issues facing the country and, by extension, the Palestinians and the wider region. My answer is yes but with significant qualifications.

After a total of nearly two decades in power over the past three decades, including the last four years at the helm of what has arguably been the most far-right and inept government in Israel’s history, Netanyahu may leave behind a deeply scarred country. His determination to retain power has come at the cost of national cohesion, exacerbating fear and a profound siege mentality in Israeli society.

Throughout his time in office, Netanyahu has cynically exploited and........

© Al Jazeera