The month of February in 2026 will go down in the geopolitical history of South Asia for several factors. It will be remembered not just for the most consequential elections that took place in Bangladesh in its modern history, it will also be known for other major developments taking place in India’s immediate neighbourhood. Notable among these, is the recent arrest of Sri Lanka’s former intelligence chief Major General Suresh Sallay on 25 February in connection with the 2019 Easter Sunday Bombings.

The developments have rattled Sri Lanka’s political landscape and its impact can have a spillover effect on India. Indian intelligence agencies provided multiple, specific warnings to Sri Lanka about the 2019 Easter Sunday bombings weeks in advance, including identifying the mastermind and potential targets (churches and hotels). Despite this, actionable intelligence was not acted upon, resulting in a major security lapse that killed more than 250 people. The bombings were carried out by local Islamist extremist groups, primarily National Thowheeth Jama'ath (NTJ) and Jammiyathul Millathu Ibrahim. The bombers were motivated by radical Islamist ideology and inspired by ISIS.

The Sri Lankan government of the day led by Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe admitted to a “major intelligence lapse” while many Sri Lankan analysts at that time observed that Easter Bombings marked a return of terrorism in the Indian Ocean island nation exactly a decade after the defeat of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) and the elimination of its chief V. Prabhakaran in May 2009.

Sallay, who has been arrested under Sri Lanka’s Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA), was made the chief of the country’s top intelligence agency,........

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