menu_open Columnists
Paul Whiteley

Paul Whiteley

The Conversation

We use cookies to provide some features and experiences in QOSHE

More information  .  Close

Nigel Farage attacks YouGov over low polling figures – but Reform’s support is dropping across the board

Nigel Farage attacks YouGov over low polling figures – but Reform’s support is dropping across the board

Nigel Farage has criticised polling company YouGov for showing less Reform UK support than other agencies.

yesterday 7

The Conversation

Paul Whiteley

What Americans think of the war in Iran

A majority of Americans are against the war, according to a new poll. This has implications for the mid-term elections in November.

05.03.2026 10

The Conversation

Paul Whiteley

Who will win in Gorton and Denton? What the results of every byelection since 2010 tell us

Polling byelections is notoriously difficult so to predict a winner, you need to combine a variety of data.

20.02.2026 400

The Conversation

Paul Whiteley

Data suggests Labour would be making a mistake if it ousted Keir Starmer after May elections

Voters tend to think about prime ministers less than we might assume when elections roll around.

15.01.2026 10

The Conversation

Paul Whiteley

What the year in polls tells us about Reform’s growth – and Labour and Tory losses

However you cut it, the big parties have lost significant ground to Reform.

19.12.2025 10

The Conversation

Paul Whiteley

Economic forecasts point to a Democrat win in the 2026 US midterm elections

Available data suggests the Democratic Party will win ten seats and gain control of the House of Representatives in the midterms.

20.11.2025 10

The Conversation

Paul Whiteley

Worries about climate change are waning in many well-off nations – but growing in Turkey, Brazil and India

Polling reveals changing attitudes to the threat of climate change around the world.

17.11.2025 5

The Conversation

Paul Whiteley

Why did the polls get the Caerphilly byelection wrong? They ignored the fact Reform is an English nationalist party

Welsh identity is strong in Caerphilly, even by Welsh standards. This should have been factored into polling.

30.10.2025 5

The Conversation

Paul Whiteley

Reform and Green party members the most ideologically removed from the average voter

Labour and the Liberal Democrat members are the most aligned with the average voter in the UK.

07.10.2025 4

The Conversation

Paul Whiteley

Americans expect inflation to be far higher than it really is, polling shows

An expert digs into why the US public thinks inflation is so high.

15.09.2025 9

The Conversation

Paul Whiteley

Constituency-level data reveals which parties are most threatened by Reform

National polling masks a hidden truth: people are very undecided about how they’d vote in their own constituency.

05.09.2025 6

The Conversation

Paul Whiteley

Two charts that lay bare the threat posed by radical right parties to western democracies

Radical parties are now more numerous than any other category in 31 countries.

08.08.2025 8

The Conversation

Paul Whiteley

Do the US public support Trump bombing Iran? Here’s what the data shows

The American public are not obviously rallying around Trump’s decision to bomb Iran.

27.06.2025 5

The Conversation

Paul Whiteley

The big Musk v Trump break-up : what the polls say about who the public thinks won

The Musk v Trump media battle went very public, but polls just after the scrap showing that Americans felt more favourably towards the president than...

12.06.2025 4

The Conversation

Paul Whiteley

Reform leads in voting intentions – but where does their vote come from?

The rising popularity of Nigel Farage’s party is an unprecedented threat to the major parties.

05.06.2025 6

The Conversation

Paul Whiteley

As Trump’s ratings slide, polling data reveals the scale of Fox News’s influence on US politics

Donald Trump has lost popularity in the past few months – but how much is his voting base being maintained by media support?

23.05.2025 10

The Conversation

Paul Whiteley

MRP poll puts Reform ahead of Labour and the Tories – here’s why the finding should be treated with caution

The way an MRP poll is produced makes it of limited value so far out from an election.

25.04.2025 10

The Conversation

Paul Whiteley

Do Americans support Trump’s attitudes to Ukraine and Russia? Here’s what recent data shows

How far do American citizens support Donald Trump’s position on Ukraine and Russia?

24.04.2025 10

The Conversation

Paul Whiteley

Have Trump’s tariffs affected his popularity? Here’s what approval data shows

Polling shows approval ratings for the US president has shifted with the introduction of new tariffs.

16.04.2025 8

The Conversation

Paul Whiteley

Three graphs that show what’s happening with Donald Trump’s popularity

Donald Trump’s popularity is not much different when you compare older and younger voters.

25.03.2025 7

The Conversation

Paul Whiteley

Two charts that explain why Reform isn’t being dented by its scandals

Nigel Farage is engaged in a very public spat with Rupert Lowe, one of his MPs. But it hasn’t dented Reform’s polling. Here’s why.

14.03.2025 6

The Conversation

Paul Whiteley

The US stock market does better under Democrat presidents than Republicans – here’s what the data shows

A dip into historical data shows that the stock market has responded differently under Republican and Democrat presidents.

28.01.2025 5

The Conversation

Paul Whiteley