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Mark Mellman, Opinion Contributor

Mark Mellman, Opinion Contributor

The Hill

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The podcast election? 

Democrats have struggled to build an audience for their progressive podcasts and influencers, as the right-wing media has been more successful in...

15.01.2025 7

The Hill

Mark Mellman, Opinion Contributor

Analysts beware of election analyses — and fallacies

The country is awash in hundreds, if not thousands, of election analyses, but many of the tools being employed are laden with problems and pitfalls...

11.12.2024 20

The Hill

Mark Mellman, Opinion Contributor

Has there been a change in Senate-presidential vote correlation?

The correlation between Senate and presidential votes has been increasing, with 2024 yielding four mismatches, but the average difference between...

04.12.2024 10

The Hill

Mark Mellman, Opinion Contributor

Were the polls right? It’s complicated. 

Assessing the accuracy of polls is much more complicated than it looks. 

20.11.2024 1

The Hill

Mark Mellman, Opinion Contributor

Why did Trump win? The fundamentals did it.  

Democrats should not be surprised by the election results, as fundamentals such as the economy, incumbency, and the incumbent president's approval...

13.11.2024 3

The Hill

Mark Mellman, Opinion Contributor

Who will decide this election — does it even matter?

The game of deciding who decides elections is a complex one, with no clear definition of who decides the outcome, and the interaction of all...

30.10.2024 1

The Hill

Mark Mellman, Opinion Contributor

Half the country will vote for Trump. What is his appeal?

Donald Trump's appeal is based on uniting three strands of conservatism, aversion to government, aversion to change, and aversion to difference,...

16.10.2024 20

The Hill

Mark Mellman, Opinion Contributor

The relationship between presidential and Senate voting 

The correlation between presidential and Senate votes has increased significantly over the past few decades, with Democrats outperforming their...

09.10.2024 2

The Hill

Mark Mellman, Opinion Contributor

Unpacking Harris’s dramatic polling transformation 

Vice President Kamala Harris has seen a dramatic reversal in her favorability ratings, with voters now viewing her as net favorable by 3 points in...

25.09.2024 2

The Hill

Mark Mellman, Opinion Contributor

What the debate reveled about Donald Trump

Donald Trump's first reaction to any pressure is to lie. Trump is also frighteningly gullible, seemingly unable to distinguish trustworthy sources...

18.09.2024 20

The Hill

Mark Mellman, Opinion Contributor

Will the debate prove decisive? 

Debates are rarely decisive in determining the outcome of presidential elections, with the impact of a debate being minimal and often overshadowed...

11.09.2024 2

The Hill

Mark Mellman, Opinion Contributor

Continuity and change in campaign 2024

Replacing Joe Biden with Kamala Harris at the top of the ticket weeks before the convention led to a shift of less than a point and a half.  ...

31.07.2024 1

The Hill

Mark Mellman, Opinion Contributor

Political impacts of assassination attempts 

The impact of an assassination attempt on an election is unpredictable, with some politicians benefiting from the incident while others do not, as...

17.07.2024 1

The Hill

Mark Mellman, Opinion Contributor