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If you’ve been around politics for any length of time, you know the drill: Special off-cycle elections are supposed to offer an augury into what’ll end up happening when the midterms roll around, and it’s never good news for the president.

Usually, these things are non-stories. Most of these seats are in districts where the majority party has a safe seat and the party out of power makes a big show of trying to get a fresh face within striking distance of a safe seat.

Sometimes, this helps to vault a previously obscure politician into the national spotlight. Jon Ossoff, for instance, is now a member of the Senate because of one of these off-cycle special elections. Usually, it does not. (It’s only been a few months since her loss, but I think the ascent of Aftyn Behn reached its premature apogee in rather spectacular fashion in December, despite outperforming Democrats’ typical vote totals in the Tennessee district she attempted to flip.)

And, generally speaking, these elections don’t really provide much insight. The party out of power almost always over-performs, then over-performs in the midterms, because that’s the American political circle of life. It’s a bit like seeing a single swallow flying somewhere near San Juan Capistrano and predicting a whole bunch of them are about to return. If you get paid for this sort of insight, your job could be safely replaced even without the encroachment of AI.

On a rare occasion, however, one of these elections does provide genuine insight that the media and the pundit class isn’t talking about — and the election in Virginia House District 98 on Tuesday certainly qualified.

According to WAVY-TV, Republican Andrew Rice defeated Democrat Cheryl Smith by 62 percent to 38 percent in the House of Delegates race to replace the late Republican Del. Barry Knight.

“I am thrilled to welcome Andrew Rice to our caucus as the newest delegate from the 98th District,” Republican Del. Terry Kilgore said. “The road back starts here.”

Rice, who is the deputy commonwealth’s attorney in Virginia Beach, was expected to win, given that this was a safe Republican seat. (In fact, were there any off-cycle election tendency for voters to come out to register displeasure on what’s happening at a national level, Smith would arguably be the beneficiary.)

However, the race represented a significant jump over the vote that Knight received last November against Smith, where he won by a 56.6 to 43.2 percent margin, according to Ballotpedia — a far lower number than Rice’s 24-point win, even with Knight having the benefit of incumbency.

And not only that, but Republican gubernatorial candidate Winsome Earle-Sears only won the district by somewhere between 5 to 7 percentage points in November during her loss to Democrat Abigail Spanberger.

🚨 Republicans just won a special election in Virginia HD-98. Republican Andrew Rice is currently ahead+29 in a district that was Sears+7 in November. A 22 point swing to the GOP. pic.twitter.com/9aYb7g3gfi — Greg Price (@greg_price11) March 17, 2026

🚨 Republicans just won a special election in Virginia HD-98.

Republican Andrew Rice is currently ahead+29 in a district that was Sears+7 in November.

A 22 point swing to the GOP. pic.twitter.com/9aYb7g3gfi

— Greg Price (@greg_price11) March 17, 2026

(While Greg Price says Earle-Sears won by 7 points, commonwealth-level records in Virginia aren’t kept quite as neatly and based on our data extrapolation, we found the number was likely closer to five points, give or take. In other words, that’s a 20-point swing.)

So, why the reason for the shift? The answer is Spanberger herself, who was seen as the future of the Democratic Party heading into the 2026 midterms.

If any of you are old enough to remember that “Family Guy” episode some 20-odd years ago where Lois Griffin wins a local election by answering every question with “9/11,” Spanberger basically ran the IRL version of this campaign, only substituting the word “affordability.” The implication was clear: She was no woke ideologue, just someone who cared how much your eggs cost.

Gov. Spanberger: We will work relentlessly to make life more affordable for our fellow Virginians. We will tackle the high cost of housing, whether you’re renting, buying, or trying to stay in your home. We will work to lower energy costs. And we will contend with an impending… pic.twitter.com/WTNTTGkZZK — FactPost (@factpostnews) January 17, 2026

Gov. Spanberger: We will work relentlessly to make life more affordable for our fellow Virginians. We will tackle the high cost of housing, whether you’re renting, buying, or trying to stay in your home. We will work to lower energy costs. And we will contend with an impending… pic.twitter.com/WTNTTGkZZK

— FactPost (@factpostnews) January 17, 2026

And so how did that work out? It turns out that Spanberger’s definition of “affordability” might not be yours, as Virginians quickly discovered:

The “affordability” honeymoon appears to be ending for the Spanberger administration. pic.twitter.com/bMrqGuu6W7 — Nick Minock (@NickMinock) February 11, 2026

The “affordability” honeymoon appears to be ending for the Spanberger administration. pic.twitter.com/bMrqGuu6W7

— Nick Minock (@NickMinock) February 11, 2026

Taxes increase in Fairfax, VA under @FairfaxDems AGAIN “Affordability” for families under Gov Spanberger’s Dem party continues https://t.co/8dTgM64svk — NOVA Campaigns (@NoVA_Campaigns) February 26, 2026

Taxes increase in Fairfax, VA under @FairfaxDems AGAIN

“Affordability” for families under Gov Spanberger’s Dem party continues https://t.co/8dTgM64svk

— NOVA Campaigns (@NoVA_Campaigns) February 26, 2026

🚨 JUST IN: Virginia’s New Democrat Gov. Abigail Spanberger says the state is RE JOINING an expensive greenhouse gas initiative expected to surge electricity costs “PARTY OF AFFORDABILITY” strikes again EVERY voter must pay attention to this in 2026! pic.twitter.com/RTD0xFMbnE — Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) January 19, 2026

🚨 JUST IN: Virginia’s New Democrat Gov. Abigail Spanberger says the state is RE JOINING an expensive greenhouse gas initiative expected to surge electricity costs

“PARTY OF AFFORDABILITY” strikes again

EVERY voter must pay attention to this in 2026! pic.twitter.com/RTD0xFMbnE

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) January 19, 2026

In the meantime, Democrats have proposed gutting election integrity measures, cutting prison sentences, banning gas lawn mowers, blocking cooperation with Immigration and Customs Enforcement, and possibly even setting off on a gun-grabbing quest, among other outrages.

Spanberger was supposed to be the prototype for the 2026 Democrat candidate: laser-focused on “affordability,” out the window with all of the cultural infighting. And in just two months, she and her party have managed to prove that was all a ruse — and not a very clever one, at that.

In fact, the massive swing in House District 98 should be a warning to a party that hasn’t thought about “affordability” since the days of John F. Kennedy: They may have fooled Virginians this once, but Spanberger will be the perfect object lesson in why the feint shouldn’t work in November.

People vote for Democrat promises, realize that they were all lies, and then — within just two months, in this case — want Republicans back to help rescue them.

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