Since the United States and Israel launched their Feb. 28 attacks, thousands have reportedly been killed, shipping routes have come under assault, and the Strait of Hormuz has become an instrument of coercion. Yet missiles, blockades, and negotiations cannot answer the central political question: Who can lead Iran beyond the Islamic Republic? That answer will determine whether the country moves toward popular sovereignty or is trapped between competing forms of authoritarian rule.

For the Iranian regime, that question is more dangerous than any military strike. The regime can absorb physical losses, rebuild command structures, and tighten repression. What it cannot easily survive is international recognition that an organized democratic alternative exists. Its next offensive will therefore be fought through television studios, think tanks, diplomatic circles, social media, and the ecosystem of influence it has cultivated abroad.

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This playbook is already visible. In January, the European Union sanctioned Iranian regime entities for censorship, online trolling, surveillance, and disinformation. Hamburg’s 2025 intelligence report is even more direct: it identifies the Mojahedin-e-Khalq Organization and its political coalition, the National........

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