The escalating crisis in the Strait of Hormuz is often discussed as a global energy shock. Roughly a fifth of the world’s oil supply normally passes through this narrow maritime corridor, meaning any disruption immediately rattles markets from Asia to Europe.

But beyond the global headlines lies a quieter and potentially more dangerous story: Iraq may be the single biggest state casualty of the Hormuz crisis.

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For Baghdad, the problem is not only geopolitical. It is structural and political.

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Before the latest regional escalation, Iraq was producing roughly 4.4 million barrels of oil per day and exporting about 3.4 million barrels daily from its southern terminals near Basra. These exports form the backbone of Iraq’s economy. Oil revenues account for nearly 90% of government income, funding everything from public salaries to electricity generation.

When shipping through the Strait of Hormuz was abruptly halted, Iraq’s export system collapsed almost overnight. Within days, production fell sharply as storage capacity filled and tankers stopped arriving.

Today, Iraqi production has dropped to roughly 1.5 million barrels per day,........

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