Russia has learned that influence can often achieve what occupation no longer can afford to. The Trump administration must be on notice.

For centuries, geopolitical success meant armies crossing borders and imposing control by force. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine shows that model still works — but it also shows how expensive it has become. Occupation invites sanctions, insurgency, and years of economic strain. Winning battles no longer guarantees winning the peace.

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So the value of influence has risen. A state that can shape another country’s political decisions, exploit its institutional weaknesses, or deepen its economic dependence can now get what once required tanks and occupation forces — without ever crossing a border.

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Moscow’s old approach required overwhelming force and paid a steep price for it: Hungary in 1956, Czechoslovakia in 1968, both crushed by Soviet tanks and both a diplomatic embarrassment that outlived the occupations themselves. Today’s approach pays no such price, because it rarely looks like aggression at all.

I watched this shift happen in my own country.

In August 2008, Russia chose the old model. It crossed an internationally recognized border, bombed Georgian cities, and seized territory that it has never returned. By the traditional measure of war, Russia won. But Tbilisi did not fall. The government did not collapse. Georgia’s pursuit of NATO and the European Union did not stop. Occupation delivered two breakaway regions and years of international condemnation. It did not deliver Georgia.

What followed instead was quieter and far........

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