I’m a glass-is-half-empty sort of guy when it comes to elections.

I always see the race that could go wrong, the supposedly safe seat that isn’t safe, and the political wave that could disappear before reaching shore.

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But pessimism isn’t the same thing as denial. Republicans need a sober, detached assessment of 2026 because nobody who isn’t being paid to say otherwise will say that 2026 is a good year for Republicans.

The national environment is tilting Democratic. The RealClearPolitics average has Democrats leading Republicans by 7 points on the generic congressional ballot.

The warning signs are everywhere.

Republicans are having to pay attention to Senate races in Montana, Alaska, and Iowa — states President Donald Trump won overwhelmingly. Democrats are even making noise about Mississippi, although that is surely a ruse intended to make Republicans........

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