Does Australia have the highest CGT in the world? This economist thinks so

June 21, 2026 — 3:00am

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A model is only as good as the assumptions that underpin it. And when those assumptions are landmines, what happens when the model is tested by reality is going to be messy.

At 4.30pm on budget night – which is over a month ago now, but still making headlines – the government released the number 75,000. At 4.30am two days later, an economist and share trader woke up with a “Eureka” moment.

This is not a whodunit. I can tell you up front: the modelling is the culprit in both of those stories.

The 75,000 number was released to the media with an embargo which lifted after Australia’s leading public economists had been shut into the budget lock-up. That means they’d had their connection to the wider world taken from them, giving the figure the best chance of making its way in the media and social feeds for 3½ hours without unwelcome scrutiny. It was so obviously a political tactic that I was immediately suspicious.

The media drop referred to an announcement that the budget would “support” an additional 75,000 first home buyers over 10 years. The number got the headline it was designed to generate. Rent, which might go up “less than $2 per week” according to the budget papers, wasn’t mentioned.

Chalmers winds back ministerial powers in bid to clear CGT Senate hurdle

The working behind those numbers is opaque. The relevant ministers’ offices and Treasury rebuffed my request for the assumptions on the basis that it’s “not standard practice” to release Treasury modelling. Any shareholder can demand a company reveal how it arrives........

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